EUR / USD remained strong yesterday, offering a test of 1.18 in an empty news, before weakening below this psychological threshold.
Recall that yesterday, the almost empty economic calendar had left the EUR / USD private catalysts, which did not prevent the pair accelerate to a test of 1.18 in the continuity of Friday's movements.
It is also this lack of catalysts that prevented the pair from maintaining the psychological threshold of 1.18, tested in the afternoon.
The uncertainty is gaining ground, since after failing to test the key threshold of 1.17 last week, the good performance of the Euro since Monday ends to show that the downside phase initiated in late November could end, or any at least take a break, without offering a positive enough profile to justify purchases.
Today, the news will be more dense, with the German ZEW index and the US producer prices on the program, but the wait could continue to dominate trade, waiting for the meeting of the Fed tomorrow, and that of the ECB on Thursday.
For the Fed, a rate hike is expected, which is also not unrelated to the recent decline of EUR / USD against a background of strengthening the greenback. Traders have already partly "bought the rumor" of the rate hike of the Fed, which induces a risk that they "sell the news", especially if the Fed seems cautious regarding the timing of the next increases rate.
For its part, the ECB should announce no monetary policy decision, but could according to some analysts raise its forecasts of growth and inflation.
In the end, the risk seems to rise for the EUR / USD against the meetings of central banks this week, and it is also this context that benefits EUR / USD since Monday, at least in part.
From a graphical point of view, we must remember that the Euro Dollar has been in a bearish profile since the beginning of the month, following an exit from the bottom of a bullish channel, but the uncertainty is gaining ground after ten or so years. days back.
On the downside, the pair is indeed facing several supports close to each other, at 1.1730, 1.1715 and 1.17, while on the upside, an increasingly strong resistance is formed on 1, 1800-1810. To summarize, we will watch this morning 1.1730 down and 1.18 up.
Currently, the EUR / USD is trading around 1.1770 on Forex.