EUR / USD: Can the US CPI have an impact on Forex before tonight's FOMC? :

The heavy EUR / USD pair in intraday and overall wait-and-see before tonight's FOMC meeting.

Indeed, after failing on the 1.1800 / 1.1825 resistance zone, EUR / USD fell towards the 1.1720 support area, where it found some support.

The rebound remains fairly limited, however, with bearish pressures and a heavy intraday tone.

As long as the range of 1.1720 / 1.1825 holds, more generally it is the wait-and-see attitude that prevails before the major event of the meeting of the Fed tonight at 20h.

However, before that, we will have data on inflation in the United States, which is the main theme currently being monitored by the Fed, in addition to the job market which, on the other hand, is doing much better (4.1 unemployment rate). % and more than 200k jobs created in October and November).

Even if the wait could still prevail following this publication, it will be more prudent to remain attentive while a renewed intraday volatility is not at all to rule out.

On the core CPI, the consensus anticipates a confirmation of previous figures at 0.2% m / m and 1.8% y / y. If this is the case, the Forex should remain calm, but any surprise, especially if it is down, could make the dollar react.

Overall CPI is expected to rise to 0.4% m / m from 0.1%, and to 2.2% y / y from 2.0%. A surprise in these numbers should have less impact than for the core reads.

In terms of the thresholds to monitor, we have strong supports towards 1.1720, 1.1680, 1.1660 then 1.1620.

On the rise, a rebound would find resistance towards 1.1750, 1.1775, 1.1820 then 1.1825.

A technical break below 1.1720 or above 1.1825 would eventually restart an intraday direction, but then everything will depend on the 20h FOMC.

The EUR / USD is currently trading at 1.1738 on Forex.
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